Methodology
Data last refreshed: 23 October 2026
This page explains how we calculate van valuations, what data we use, and what we assume. Every number is either sourced from published data or flagged as an assumption.
Summary
- Start with the model's new list price ex VAT from the manufacturer.
- Deflate that price to the year the van was registered using ONS new-vehicle CPI.
- Apply the segment retention curve (low and high band, by age, at 20,000 miles/year, trade value, average condition).
- If model-specific evidence exists, apply a model multiplier (e.g. VW Transporter 1.15×, Fiat Ducato 0.88×).
- Apply mileage, condition, service history, and fuel adjustments.
- Output trade low/mid/high and private sale range (trade × 1.15/1.20/1.25).
Estimate, not an offer
Our estimates are based on published list prices and depreciation data. They are not Cap HPI or Glass's valuations, not formal appraisals, and not offers to purchase. Real offers depend on inspection, history checks, and current demand.
Data sources
We use 48 sources (accessed 23 October 2026):
| Source | URL |
|---|---|
| SMMT – Van market shrinks in 2025 despite EV growth (full-year 2025 top 10 + segment totals) | www.smmt.co.uk/van-market-shrinks-in-2025-despite-... |
| SMMT – Van market declines in November but EV demand grows (YTD Nov 2025 top 10) | www.smmt.co.uk/van-market-declines-in-november-but... |
| SMMT – September's record electric van uptake (YTD Sep 2026 top 10) | www.smmt.co.uk/septembers-record-electric-van-upta... |
| Parkers – Van depreciation rates compared (CAP 3yr/60k retained values, 1 Mar 2016) | www.parkers.co.uk/vans-pickups/best/2016/van-depre... |
| Volkswagen Van Centre – whole-life-cost comparison (3yr/60k residuals, CAP-based, undated) | sinclairg.vm.live1.cogplatform.co.uk/volkswagen-va... |
| Loads of Vans – Van depreciation rates (yearly loss bands by size; cites Cap HPI EV 52% vs diesel 43% at 3yr/60k) | www.loadsofvans.com/blog/van-depreciation-rates... |
| VanGuide – Electric van residual values higher than diesel (Vahana data, c.2019) | www.vanguide.co.uk/guides/electric-van-residual-va... |
| Cap HPI – Commercial Overview June 2024 (forecast points 1Yr20k…5Yr100k; condition definitions) | www.cap-hpi.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024053... |
| AM Online / Cap HPI (Ken Brown) – Impact of BIK rule changes for double-cab pick-ups, 9 Jul 2026 | www.am-online.com/features-landing/executive-view-... |
| Vansold – Private sale vs trade buyer: the real numbers (17 Feb 2026) | www.vansold.co.uk/blog/van-private-sale-vs-trade-b... |
| ONS – CPI INDEX 07.1.1A: New cars, 2015=100 (series D7E8, release 21 Oct 2026) | www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/ti... |
| Ford Transit Custom price list effective 01/12/2023 (dealer-hosted PDF, Rapid Vans) | www.rapidvans.co.uk/storage/dCefRahMuR5McLmFtvL7BU... |
| Ford UK – Transit Custom price list page (from £35,150 ex VAT, effective 1 Apr 2026; figure via search snippet, PDF not fetched) | www.ford.co.uk/vans-and-pickups/transit-custom/pri... |
| Ford UK – E-Transit Custom page (from £43,630 ex VAT; via search snippet) | www.ford.co.uk/vans-and-pickups/e-transit-custom... |
| Ford Transit price list effective 28 Aug 2026 (from £44,545 diesel / £49,545–£50,695 E-Transit ex VAT; via search snippet, PDF not fetched) | www.ford.co.uk/content/dam/guxeu/uk/documents/pric... |
| Ford Transit Connect price list effective 28 Jul 2026 (from £24,600 ex VAT; via search snippet) | www.ford.co.uk/content/dam/guxeu/uk/documents/pric... |
| Ford Transit Courier / E-Transit Courier price list effective 24 Aug 2026 (from £17,800; E- Trend £27,000 ex VAT; via search snippet) | www.ford.co.uk/content/dam/guxeu/uk/documents/pric... |
| Ford Ranger 26MY price list effective 16 Jul 2025 (dealer-hosted PDF) | globalvans.co.uk/avm/images/vans/FOFR/Ford%20Range... |
| Volkswagen Transporter price guide (6 Jan 2026) | www.volkswagen-vans.co.uk/idhub/content/dam/onehub... |
| Volkswagen Caddy Cargo price guide (facelift, 2025) | www.volkswagen-vans.co.uk/idhub/content/dam/onehub... |
Showing first 20 of 48 sources. Full list in data/vans.json.
Assumptions
Where industry data isn't available, we make informed assumptions:
| Parameter | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Annual mileage | 20,000 miles/year | Cap HPI forecasts are quoted at 1Yr20k…5Yr100k, i.e. 20k miles/yr. |
| Mileage sensitivity | 0.004% per 1,000 miles | ASSUMPTION: 0.4% of value per 1,000 miles above/below expected; factor clamped to [0.70, 1.12]. |
| Condition: excellent | ×1.05 | ASSUMPTION. 'good' = the curves' baseline (Cap 'average condition': normal wear for age/mileage, see cap-2024). Others are judgement, not sourced. |
| Condition: good | ×1 | |
| Condition: fair | ×0.9 | |
| Condition: poor | ×0.75 | |
| Private sale uplift (low) | ×1.15 | Private-sale price ≈ trade × uplift. Vansold example: realistic private £7,500–£8,500 vs trade £6,000–£7,000 on a 2018 Transit Custom (mid ratio ≈1.23). Single source – low confidence. |
| Private sale uplift (mid) | ×1.2 | |
| Private sale uplift (high) | ×1.25 |
Depreciation curves
We use five segment curves (small, medium, large, pickup, electric vans) showing the fraction of original list price (ex VAT) retained as trade value at 20,000 miles/year, average condition:
| Age | Small (low–high) | Medium (low–high) | Large (low–high) | Pickup (low–high) | Electric (low–high) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 yr | 72%–85% | 72%–85% | 72%–85% | 72%–85% | 72%–85% |
| 1 yr | 44%–65% | 47%–68% | 50%–77% | 53%–81% | 38%–71% |
| 3 yr | 30%–44% | 32%–46% | 30%–46% | 36%–55% | 26%–48% |
| 5 yr | 23%–34% | 25%–35% | 20%–31% | 28%–42% | 20%–37% |
| 7 yr | 20%–29% | 21%–30% | 16%–24% | 24%–36% | 17%–31% |
| 10 yr | 16%–23% | 17%–24% | 11%–16% | 19%–28% | 14%–25% |
Known gaps and limitations
- Pickup curve: No UK-specific 3yr/60k data found. We use Australian evidence (HiLux 64.7%, Ranger 57.1% at 4 years) plus Cap HPI's BIK-change warnings as a guide.
- Electric vans: Evidence conflicts. Cap HPI reports 52% retention at 3yr/60k vs diesel 43%, but TrainAR/usedcarstats shows E-Transit ~35%. We use a wide band (26–48%) to reflect uncertainty.
- Three sources are recorded at domain level only (exact article URL to be re-located).
- Generation changes (e.g. 2025 Ford-built VW Transporter vs T6.1) aren't modelled separately.
- Price-list dates range from December 2023 to October 2026.
- Condition, service, and mileage factors are informed judgements, not cited from a single source.
Updates
We refresh the dataset quarterly. The current version is 2026-10-23.
Code and transparency
The valuation formula is open: you can see the reference implementation in Python and the dataset JSON on our GitHub repository (link to be added). The TypeScript engine in the browser matches the reference implementation exactly.